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Fareed Zakaria GPS

News/Business. Foreign affairs and policies shaping the world. New.

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CNN

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01:00:00

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ac3

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1920

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1080

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China 9, Egypt 9, America 7, United States 6, Us 5, Israel 4, U.s. 4, Lebanon 3, Volkswagen 2, Liz 2, Unitedhealthcare 2, Fareed 2, Gordon 2, Morsi 2, Scotts 2, Belgium 2, Steve 2, Africa 2, Europe 2, Switzerland 2,
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  CNN    Fareed Zakaria GPS    News/Business. Foreign affairs  
   and policies shaping the world. New.  

    December 2, 2012
    7:00 - 8:00am PST  

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country. >> mr. landry did go negative early. we had to defend our voting record. >> in the end louisiana's unusual race turns out to be rather conventional, very expensive and nasty. hopefully this time next sunday we can put a period on election 2012. thanks for watching "state of the union." this is "gps." welcome to all of you in the united states and around the world. we'll take you around the world today starting with egypt. the nation has erupted. we'll explain what the power struggle between the president and the courts means for the
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rest of the arab world and the world at large. then china ease new leaders. we know their names but who are they and what can we expect from them. the black swam predicted the economic crisis. the author on his fascinating new book. which nations might find themselves split apart. i'll explain. first, here is my take. arafat's body has been exhumed for investigation. the news broke at a time when a conventional wisdom has begun to take hold that the middle east is much more dangerous, unstable, violent and anti-american than before. let's take a look at facts. in the 1980s the newly empowered
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radical unsettled the region with its promise to spread its revolution elsewhere. lebanon was in the midst of a bloody civil war. iran and iraq fought a gruesome war with over one million casualties. hezbollah attacked u.s. armed forces directly forcing a h humiliating withdrawal from lebanon. u.s. secrets were compromised. that was just in one decade. consider those days from israel's point of view. during the 1980s, jerusalem faced well arms regimes. no arab regime would speak openly about peace with israel.
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his chief tactic was terrorism. today the soviet union has collapsed, hussein is gone. israel has grown to become a regional military super power. it's defense budget is larger now than that of all its neighbors put together. it's advantages put it in another league. the palestinian authority confirms israel's existence and works with it regularly. it faces the combined opposition of the secular arab states. there's a broader contest for regional power. turkey has economic and military power but it also has growing
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regional clout. egypt is the natural leader of the arab world but it's not in a position to dominate. its economy is shambles, it's i it's military is second rate. the public opposition has bng reassuring. the middle east is a complex region that is changing fast. it's more vibrant and even more democratic place of the middle east a generation ago. you can read my column in this week's time magazine. let's get started. it was a week filled with tension and violence in egypt. there were mass protests after
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morsi issued a decree neutering the agenda. what to make of it all? two of my favorite scholars are with me. this is a power grab my morsi. is that accurate? >> every decision he makes is now free of any possibility of judicial review. really the game is kind of moved beyond that now. what is motivating people to protest is not the declaration but it's the new institution that his allies have rushed through. >> steve, what is the army's role in all of this. that's the piece people don't understand. you have morsi and the isz lam brother head.
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you have the liberals who are opposing it. where does the army stand? >> the military has removed itself from the political system. the new military leadership that came into power in mid-august as a result of morsi's declarations have a deal with him. they were relieved of the burden of having to govern egypt. removing themselves from the political system is more in keeping with the history of the egypt armed forces since the 1967 defeat when they determined being a political army was not good for their organization and their ability to fight a war on the battlefield. >> is the struggle the islamist versus the seculars and is it fair to say as everybody does while the islamists have greater appeal, they're going to win this. >> there are basically three
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groups here that are contending for the loyalties of the mass of egypt people. one group is the egyptians. the other is the muhbaric loyalists. it was the islamists and the young revolutionaries against the loyalists. now because they have been so heavy handed in the way they have governed the transitions it's now really the revolutionary finds themselves with these loyalists. they're big grievance is this institution. it takes egypt significant step more toward islamic policy. just a really quick example. article two has said in egypt since 1971 that the sharria is
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the main source of legislation. article 219 defines the principles in sunni jurisprudence. you've got to be an expert in islamic law if you want to have a prayer of discussing laws. there's lots of things like that. that's what's angering a lot of these liberals. >> steve, do you think the islamists will be able to push this through? >> egypt is a country of stunning ironies. they have pushed it through. the question is whether people will accept it. i think this was all kicked off by the fact that revolutionaries, supporters determined that they were not going to allow the muslim brotherhood to run the table unchallenged. it's unclear whether they will be able to overthrow morsi but they want to teach him a lesson by coming out into the streets
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and saying we will no longer be ruled by decree. you cannot take away the rights that we fought so hard for during those heady days of january and february of 2011. >> egypt is the great experiment. everybody now understands democracy is not just elections. it's liberal constitutionalism. it's these documents. it's civil society. egypt seems to be going in the direction of not liberal democracy but ill liberal democracy. >> right. you're absolutely right that people who are worried about egypt right now absolutely see it going in this illiberal direction. it has some great language about individual rights but it makes it all subject to the principles. >> the state is given charge of
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public morality. >> absolutely. >> women's rights, for example which there's been a constitutional article that said the state will work to achieve equality between men and women. that was in the constitution. now it's gone. there's a nondiscrimination clause but it doesn't mention women as a protected class. it's really a step backwards in terms of liberties. if you believe that really what we care about, what we look at democracy we don't really care about the voting. the voting is important but we care about freedom and liberty for people. you would have to thi thnk that egypt is not going in the right direction. >> do you think the united states has a role? >> certainly it does. president obama came out during the egyptian up riding saying that it has to go. clearly the united states has put itself on the side of people that want to live in freedom and
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democracy. i think it does deserve the united states making a strong remark. the way the constitution is written morsi's decree suggests that egypt is going in the wrong direction. this kind of contested national dialogue is a good thing. the problem is no one is moving toward compromise. they're moving toward confrontation. that means that brotherhood will seek to impose its will on the residents of the population and nobody is willing to put up that. >> what does this say about morsi? he came across as this broker in the gaza negotiation. is he a dictator in sheep's clothing? >> when we were on your program
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over the summer and morsi wads elected president and he said he's a fighting personality. this is the way i think both of us expected him to behave. i don't think he wants to make himself president for life. this constitutional declaration he made that gives him these powers that by virtue is almost going to be null. it's going to be irrelevant soon. he's a faithful islamic idealogue. he wants to move them toward this direction he cares about. that's what this move is. he has to look at the constitution. he will send it back with some amendments to be made. then it goes to the egyptian people and they have to vote on it. that's the question now. what will the liberals do? will they boycott the process or get out into the streets and compete with the muslim
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brotherhood on the merits of the case? >> the liberals didn't do much and they got wiped out. 77% of the people voted for that referendum that they opposed. we hope they would get out there and really mobilize against this. >> pleasure as always . up next, china. we know who the new leaders are but what are their policies? i have two very smart experts to explain. [ male announcer ] citi turns 200 this year. in that time there've been some good days. and some difficult ones. but, through it all, we've persevered, supporting some of the biggest ideas in modern history. so why should our anniversary matter to you? because for 200 years, we've been helping ideas move from ambition to achievement.
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election in america china announced a new set of leaders. seven men who will manage the running of the world's number two economy. we have paid too little attention to this changing of the guard. what will their foreign policy look like? i have to great guests to shed light on all of that. welcome. liz. you have a very tough blog posting on the excellent counsel on foreign relations website which you say china's 18th party congress was a heartbreaker. it was a triumph of the conservative party. the candidate will the strongest credentials were left high and
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high. they took their place among the top seven. you see this as a real kind of reinstitution of a hard line conservative group. >> i do. i think this was a disappointing outcome from the 18th party congress. if you look at this leadership group they bring a wealth of experience to the table. collectively these seven men have governed roughly half the provinces. a number of them do have experience at the national level with the economy or political arena but by in large they are distinguish eed by their lack o distinction. none of them have been associated with an innovative program or policy reform on the economic or policy front. i think the fear in beijing is they are in for another five years of what they've had but perhaps with a slightly more
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confident leadership. >> one of the things i've heard from people in beijing mostly privately, publicly, guy like eric lee who is very pro-regime, they say this is mainly selected on the basis of seniority. in order to make the kind of changes that liz would like to see you need people with credentials and seniority and that's what this tells us. no more, no less. do you buy that? >> i think the group they ended up with was a compromise group. this was not the boldest reformers. these were not the people who have demonstrated a capacity and interest in making changes. these are people who will satisfy the enormous range of factions and vested interest which are now vying for control. if this new president wanted to get any traction at all, one theory is they had to satisfy
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these many con stistituentconst. the other members of the standing committee are going to change. that may be an opportunity for some of these younger more reform minded figures to come to the top. >> liz explain to us how china runs today. it seems like its central leaders have become less powerful. would it be fair to say this is more a collective leadership that the president is not going to have a carte blance to do what he wants. >> ping is the first chinese leader not to have been touched by some revolutionary leader. he's lost one pillar of
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legitima legitimacy. this is going be a collective leadership. it's going to be tough sledding. it's going to require this group of seven to come together and i don't see that happening very easily. >> evan, what is in china seen as the pressing problems that these guys have to do. we in the united states and the west we have our list and it the ends to be the western reform model is they need to shift from an export oriented economy to a c
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consumption economy. what do they think they need to do? >> what you hear from people over and over again is the same thing. they want their expectations of this government to be fulfilled. they want to know fundamentally that this government has the best interest of the people at heart. over the last ten years what they've seen is their own income, family income, has not kept up with the enormous pace of the growth of the economy. they feel they're not winning out. what the government has to do is figure out a way to reassure people that they are in fact the number one priority. you've heard this over and over again in the first language from this new president. when he gave the first speech he put aside some of the old language about socialism and chinese characteristics and a harmonious society. it's not because he's abandoning those ideas. what he said over and over was we're not complacent. we recognize we have to respond to the people's demands. that gives us an idea that he
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understands that fundamentally people are losing patience with the party. the party has to do things to help regular people on the street feel they are participating as much in china's boom add it looks like they are from the outside. >> liz, you said peaceful rise is passe. the idea chinese are trying to present their rise as very peaceful within the international system is not something they're trying to do. there's a lot of people that felt the chinese did some saber rattling with japan and the philippines and that backfire and the chinese realized that and learned the lesson they shouldn't try to be provocative. you're suggesting no. this is a new more assertive china. >> my sense in the past few weeks is we're going to see this new leadership continue with this more assertive foreign
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policy. they've developed a new passport that shows china as possessing all of the south china sea and it's caused quite a ruckus. i don't see china right now learning a lesson and taking a step back. i see what they're trying to do is changing the facts on the ground and thinking this is a long term policy and they're going to win out in the end. >> thank you so much. up next, what in the world is europe going to get a new independent country soon? i'll explain. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 let's talk about your old 401(k).
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now for a what in the world segment. a curious thing happened in the days following barack obama's election. a group of texans filed a petition. they wanted it can to succeed from the not so united states of america. the movement spread further encompassing each of the 50 states in the unions. it's a ridiculous exercise that will go nowhere. there are some real impulses across the atlantic. europe will have a new state. look at katacatalonia.
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the vote follows an unprecedented demonstration in september when about one million catalons marched the streets demanding state hood. the entire population is only about 7.5 million. the next step could be a public referendum on breaking away. consider scotland which has already reached that point. in october british prime minister dave cameron agreed to a deal allowing scotts to vote in 2014 as to whether they want to succeed. then there's the strange case of belgium. the people people dutch in the northern region. in the southern region they speech french. the people elected a set of local leaders who want to break away from belgium. why are break away parties gaining so much momentum?
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it's the economy at heart. according to leading daily only 57% of national taxes paid by catalon is returned. the lest is filtered to spain. the scotts believe that breaking away now would rid them of london's us a tausterity plans. they are careful to calculate the costs and benefits. last year scotts were polled on how they view independence. if independence made them worse off the results flipped. 500 pounds the only about 800
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u.s. dollars. adam smith, a scott, if we apply that logic in america states could point out they subsidize states like alabama, mississippi and montana. states that are the most fervent advocate of states rights and small government. we'll take you to one of africa's most trouble ed nation next. today, the beaches and gulf are open, and many areas are reporting their best tourism seasons in years. and bp's also committed to america. we support nearly 250,000 jobs
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your free decision guide. and find the aarp medicare supplement plan that may be right for you. egypt supreme court has suspended its sessions because of mass protests. demonstrations by supporters of
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morsi forced the court to postpone a ruling on the legitimacy of the body riding the new constitution. a prominent republican senator is backing away from a no tax hike pledge. georgia senator told a group of republicans this weekend that he does not want washington to dictate how he votes and that his commitment is to his constituents. he's one of 39 senators who signed conservative activist norquist pledge but the looming fiscal cliff has caused several lawmakers to walk back from that promise. reliable sources is at the top of the hour. the democratic republic of the congo is a nation the size
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of all of western europe. it may be in for a violent regime change as rebels have gained ground in recent weeks. congo was the setting for the heart of darkness and that hasn't lifted in 110 years since the story was public . 5.4 million people have died. jeff, why is it that the crisis seems to be heating up? you point out that the congo that the government's army is losing battle after battle. >> i think this is really an issue of state failure. i've been covering congo for six years and i've seen the country get weaker and weaker since i
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began. there was a big election in 2006 that created a lot of hope and enthusiasm that things were turning around. they haven't. the government has become more corrupt. there's been more rebel groups and what we're seeing in the east is a symptom. it's a symptom and a cause. it's a symptom of this weak state that can't control its own territory. it watch these couple hundred rebels march into the biggest city in the country and they didn't do much about it. that's also a cause. now that the rebels have taken goma, a lot of other opposition groups are thinking now is the time to take on the government. people are smelling blood in the water. that's the water that these rebels in eastern congo do not have the capacity or support to march all the way to kinshasa. they form a line or trigger
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events that will bring down the government. >> the government is beginning to rely on and move to the worst kind of malitias. it's been the group that engaged in rape, murder, recruited child soldiers. this could get very ugly. >> that's a really good point. both sides have horrendous human rights records. the government is now teaming up with the group called the fdlr which is the remnants of the army that committed genocide in rwanda. they raped hundreds of women, chopping apart michildren, massacre of people. that's who the government is teaming up with. congo is really this -- it's like this caldron of abuse on a scale that's unlike just about
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anywhere else in the world. i cover a number of these conflicts in africa. just about everywhere else things are changing or getting a bit better in some cases. congo has stayed the same for almost ten years and that same is very disturbing state of anarchy. >> congo has enormous resources and the a beautiful lush country. >> it's spectacular. it's one of the most beautiful places i've been ever where. there was a huge volcano with streams of smoke shooting out of it. it's very lush. it's very fertile. the lakes are beautiful. the environment is clean. it's blessed with mineral riches, gold, timber, copper. just about everything. that's part of the reason why we're seeing this fight. the u.s. government has tried to get their hands around this by
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passing this resource conflict legislation that tries to get their arms around better regulating the minerals that come out of congo. that hasn't really worked. it's not purely a mineral issue. it's a lot about power and com and politics. that's why this is so complic e complicated and keeps going on. >> thank you. up next, the author of the black swan. he joins me. he has a new book out. [ female announcer ] imagine skin so healthy, it never gets dry again.
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is there's a website to the euro crisis? has the road to the fiscal cliff been a good thing for america? our next guest says yes. he's been financially very successful. his most famous become "the
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black swan." it was a new york times best seller. some credit that book with redistricting the 2008 economic crisis. he has a new book out called "anti-fragile." let's start with a couple of kpampbls so people understa examples so people understand what you mean. some political systems are fragile and some are anti-fragile. you see switzerland is anti-fragile. why? >> fragile is something that doesn't like disorder. if something happens it breaks. probably very fragile place needless so would be saudi
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arabia. somebody robust doesn't break, doesn't care. >> that's important. >> there's fragile systems before the crisis. then there's robust systems which are better than fragile but anti-fragile for you are those that actually view change and volatility as an opportunity. >> as fuel. it's sort of like hydra. the last thing it needs for you to harm it. we know what fragilizes. top down, soviet style fragilizes. >> switzerland is good because
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it's this commune base political system where there's a lot of experimentation? >> exactly. people don't make the same mistake all the time. when something works they all adopt it. there's something quite central. a mouse is vastly more robust than an elephant. if an elephant breaks a leg quickly, a mouse, let's not experiment. a lot after small animals is vastly more robust than having large animals.
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people don't understand that size is not a good thing. >> what about the united states? >> the origin of the united states is a bottom up system. the share of federal dpogovernm has opinion growing. then we started having large cooperations. >> the only sector is there's two sectors in the united states that resemble the model. >> the anti-fragile model. >> one is the restaurant business and the other is silicone valley. silicon valley thrives on disorder. they use failure as fuel. the united states is moving away from anti-fragile system. air transportation.
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every plane crash leads to an improvement in safety. whatever probability of a crash you have the next one will be lower. the banking system today in united states, if one crashes, you know the probability of the next crashing is higher. we're not living in a healthy system. >> let's take this idea to individuals. in an interesting part of the book you say individual careers can be fragile and defragile. give us examples. >> like someone asked me yesterday on tv is the fiscal cliff a good thing or not. i said any vary blt prevents large collapses. the cab driver will never go
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fully unemployed because he can adapt, change his pattern. he can figure out what's happening. he seems to have a volatile income. it gives him information where to go, how to adapt and his brother very stable income. if he's laid off, he's gone. age 53 you're laid off in london, say good-bye. >> if you have a job in a big company the danger there is only the company internally knows why you're valuable. if you're a little entrepreneur you've been hustle around, you have different sources of information and skill. you've been adapting. >> greenspan wanted to eliminate the bust. you eliminate information. you have all these risks accumulating under the rug.
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then it blew us up when the thing happened. you want the risks to be visible. the risks are visible. the risks in lebanon are visible. they see each other. when it's visible i'm nervous. i'm incuring, i'm making a huge mistake. >> pleasure to have you on. we will be back. what is so special about this house? it may give us great insight into the world's most populous country. today, the beaches and gulf are open, and many areas are reporting their best tourism seasons in years. and bp's also committed to america.
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the united nations the p palestinian authority was greated nonmember observer status. what's the only other entity with that status? stay tuned and we'll tell you the correct answer. go do cnn.com/fareed. you can follow us on twitter and facebook. go to itunes.com/fareed for our podcast. you can get a audio version for free or buy the book version.
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he inverted the idea what would make a system or country or individual anti-fragile. if you go to our conversation in the last segment you can tell this will is a fascinating book. for the last look. political sign professor likes to point out that in democratic nations highways are full of twilights and turns to accommodate people. in autocratic they are straight because leaders can bulldoze whatever is in the way to get to a straight line. take a look at this interesting twist. the builders of this highway in china built their road in a straight line but as you can see the road has a house right in the middle of it. the homeowner refused to budge so they built around him. remember in the run up to the base olympics the authorities tore down houses with abandon. perhaps times are changing in china. on the other hand